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U.S. Home Prices Drop for the First Time Since 2023: What It Means for Santa Clarita Buyers, Sellers and Veterans (Nov. 11, 2026)

The typical U.S. home sold for slightly less in October than a year earlier, the first annual decline in Redfin’s data since May 2023. Inventory is at its highest level since early 2020, and more sellers are cutting prices. LA-area prices are still up, though. Here’s what changed, what it means locally, and, on Veterans Day, a quick refresher on VA home loans.

What Happened: The First National Price Dip in More Than Three Years

On Tuesday, Nov. 10, Redfin released its October housing report. The national median home-sale price was $388,634, down 0.4% from October 2025. Redfin says that’s the first year-over-year decline since May 2023 and a sharp slowdown from a 2.5% gain just two months earlier. Redfin also notes that wages are rising about 4% a year, so even a small price dip makes homes a little more affordable relative to income.

Other highlights from the report (seasonally adjusted except prices and mortgage rates):

Pending sales fell 3.6% from September to their lowest level since 2013, apart from April 2020. Redfin ties that to mortgage rates, which averaged 7.33% in October in its data, a three-year high and up from 6.86% in September.
Closed sales fell 2.1% for the month, the lowest level since December 2023.
Total homes for sale rose 0.9% to the highest level since early 2020, even though new listings fell 1% to their lowest level in more than two years.
61% of homes sold below their original list price, and 36% had at least one price cut, the highest share in Redfin’s records.
About 15% of pending sales fell out of contract, the highest share outside the spring 2020 pandemic spike.

Other data points the same way. CNBC reported that Realtor.com’s active inventory rose 7.4% from a year earlier in October, and Zillow said newly pending sales fell 16.8%, its biggest annual drop since August 2023. Even so, just over 20% of sellers cut their prices in October, roughly the same share as a year earlier. Many sellers are holding firm.

Sources: Redfin October 2026 report (Nov. 10, 2026), Redfin full metro data and CNBC (Nov. 9, 2026).

A national dip isn’t a local dip

Redfin found prices still rose in more than half of the 50 most populous metros. San Francisco led with a 16.8% gain, while Austin (−6.5%), Seattle (−5.1%) and Nashville (−4.9%) fell the most. A national median mixes very different markets together, which is why local numbers matter more than the headline.

What It Means for Santa Clarita and LA County

In Redfin’s metro table, the Los Angeles metro had a median sale price of $921,012 in October, up 1.9% from a year earlier. Activity slowed sharply, though:

Pending sales: −17.4% year over year
Closed sales: −11.5%
Active listings: +1.5%; new listings: +1.4%

Nearby, Anaheim (Orange County) was up 2.9%, and Riverside (the Inland Empire) was down 2.2%. Put simply, LA-area prices are holding up better than the national number, but fewer deals are getting signed. Results in Santa Clarita, Valencia, Saugus, Canyon Country, Newhall and Stevenson Ranch can differ by neighborhood, price range and property type. Redfin’s metro figures don’t break out the Santa Clarita Valley. Source: Redfin October 2026 metro-level data.

Buyers

More listings and slower sales usually mean more room to negotiate. Redfin’s head of economics, Chen Zhao, put it this way: “It’s a buyer’s market, but not many people can afford to buy.” Practical steps: compare a price reduction with seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown, and run the monthly payment both ways. Ask how long a home has been on the market and whether the price has been cut. Pay attention to inspections, since buyers who walk away over problems are one reason more contracts are falling through. With new construction, ask builders what incentives they offer on quick move-in homes. Our Nov. 7 post covers why many buyers are still on the sidelines.

Sellers

Buyers can afford to be picky right now. Price against what’s listed and pending today, not sales from six months ago. Move-in-ready homes in desirable neighborhoods still draw competition, while homes that need work or are priced high tend to sit. If you’re thinking about listing before the holidays or early in 2027, start with a home value estimate based on recent local sales and consider which concessions you’d be willing to offer.

Homeowners

A small national dip doesn’t mean your home lost value, especially since LA-area prices are still up year over year. Separately, the New York Fed reported on Nov. 10 that HELOC balances rose $23 billion in the third quarter to $481 billion, the biggest quarterly increase since 2005 and the 18th straight quarterly rise. Household debt overall rose to $19.1 trillion. The share of mortgage balances newly becoming seriously delinquent rose to 1.60% from 1.28% a year earlier, which the New York Fed called low by historical standards. If you have a HELOC, keep in mind that most are variable-rate, and futures markets expect a Fed rate hike in December. Source: New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report, Q3 2026.

Mortgage Rates on Veterans Day

The U.S. bond market is closed today. SIFMA recommended a full close of fixed-income trading for Veterans Day, so Treasury and mortgage-bond trading resumes Thursday, Nov. 12. Stock markets are open. With no bond trading, many lenders will keep yesterday’s pricing today.

For context, Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year average rose from 7.18% to 7.30% after Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation report, according to Real Estate News. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed 7.18% as of Nov. 5, and the next reading comes out Thursday. Daily averages vary by source and method, and your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment and loan type. We covered the inflation report in yesterday’s October CPI post.

Sources: SIFMA Veterans Day close recommendation, Real Estate News (Nov. 10, 2026) and Freddie Mac PMMS.

For Veterans: VA Home Loan Basics

To every veteran and military family in the Santa Clarita Valley: thank you for your service. If you’re eligible, a VA-backed loan is one of the strongest tools for buying a home. Here are the basics from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs:

No down payment in many cases, as long as the sales price isn’t higher than the appraised value.
No private mortgage insurance and no prepayment penalty.
No VA loan limit with full entitlement. If your entitlement is full, VA doesn’t cap the loan amount, though your lender still has to approve you based on income, credit and debts. If you’ve used part of your entitlement, the county loan limit matters. In LA County, that’s the 2026 one-unit limit of $1,249,125 set by FHFA.
A one-time VA funding fee usually applies. For a first-time purchase with less than 5% down, it’s 2.15% of the loan amount, and it can be financed. Veterans who receive VA disability compensation for a service-connected disability, along with some other groups, are exempt.
Seller help is allowed. VA lets sellers or builders cover closing costs and limits seller concessions to 4% of the home’s reasonable value. In a market where more sellers are negotiating, that can matter.

Getting your Certificate of Eligibility (COE) early makes shopping go smoothly. Sources: VA purchase loan, VA funding fee and closing costs, VA entitlement and limits and FHFA conforming loan limits. See our home loan options page for more.

California update: Prop. 1 (veterans and affordable housing bond)

In semi-official returns from the California Secretary of State as of Nov. 10 at 5:31 p.m. PT, Proposition 1, the $11.25 billion veterans and affordable housing bond, had 61.1% Yes, and the AP has projected it will pass. Proposition 37, state loans for middle-income buyers of new homes, had 62.4% Yes, also projected to pass by the AP. These results aren’t final. The Secretary of State is scheduled to certify them on Dec. 11, 2026. Background is in our Props 1 and 37 explainer. Sources: California Secretary of State ballot measure results and California Today results guide (updated Nov. 10, 2026).

What’s Next This Week

Thu., Nov. 12: Bond market reopens. NAR October existing-home sales (10 a.m. ET) and Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey.
Fri., Nov. 13: October Producer Price Index (BLS).
Dec. 8–9: Fed meeting.

Sources: NAR release schedule and BLS PPI schedule.

Quick Answers

Are home prices dropping in 2026?

Nationally, barely. Redfin’s October median sale price was $388,634, down 0.4% from a year earlier, the first annual decline since May 2023. Prices still rose in more than half of the 50 largest metros.

Are home prices dropping in Los Angeles?

Not in Redfin’s October data. The Los Angeles metro median was $921,012, up 1.9% year over year, but pending sales fell 17.4%, so the market is slower even though prices are holding.

Is it a buyer’s market?

In much of the country, buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years. 61% of homes sold below their original list price in October, according to Redfin. Conditions vary by neighborhood and price range.

Can I buy a home with no down payment using a VA loan?

Often, yes. VA-backed purchase loans can require no down payment if the sales price doesn’t exceed the appraised value, and with full entitlement VA sets no loan limit. Lender approval and a one-time funding fee (unless exempt) still apply.

Ready to Negotiate in a Slower Market?

More homes for sale and more motivated sellers can work in your favor if your budget and pre-approval are ready. Browse Santa Clarita and Valencia and FivePoint, see current new construction, compare home loan options or check your home’s value. Recent news: October CPI (Nov. 10), first-time buyers (Nov. 8) and jobs and rates (Nov. 6).

Call or text 661-877-4162

Andy & Rebekah, Entity Realty, entityrealty.com

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Andy Martinez Jr., Mortgage Loan Originator | NMLS #2171006 · Entity Mortgage and Realty, Company NMLS #2371431 · CA DRE #01978202 · 26254 Prima Way, Santa Clarita, CA 91350 · Equal Housing Opportunity. General information only, not a commitment to lend, and not tax, legal or investment advice. Approval, rates and terms depend on credit, income, property and program guidelines and can change. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.