What Happened: Home Sales Slid 5.5% in October

NAR released its October existing-home sales report this morning, Thursday, Nov. 12. Sales of previously owned homes (single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops) fell 5.5% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.75 million. That’s 8.8% below October 2025. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said sales fell to their lowest level since August 2010, and he pointed to mortgage rates that have climbed to their highest levels since 2000, apart from one month in 2023.

The key numbers from NAR’s report:

• Median price: $416,700, up just 0.4% from a year earlier. NAR counts that as the 40th straight month of annual gains, but the increase is now very small.
• Inventory: 1.59 million homes for sale, up 4.6% from a year ago.
• Months’ supply: 5.1 months, up from 4.7 in September and 4.4 a year ago. Slower sales make the same number of listings last longer.
• Time on market: a median of 35 days, up from 33 in September.
• Affordability: NAR’s Housing Affordability Index fell to 100.7 from 107.3 a year ago, and affordability declined in every region.
• Who’s buying: first-time buyers made up 29% of sales (down from 32% a year ago), cash sales 29% and individual investors and second-home buyers 20% (up from 16%). Distressed sales such as foreclosures and short sales stayed at just 2%.

NAR noted that Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.33% in October, up from 6.86% in September and 6.25% a year earlier. Because existing-home sales count closings, October’s numbers mostly reflect contracts signed in September and October, when rates were rising. Source: NAR October 2026 Existing-Home Sales report (Nov. 12, 2026).

Not a distressed market

A sales slump isn’t the same as a crash. Yun stressed that most of the country’s 88 million homeowners are in a comfortable financial position thanks to the equity they’ve built, and the 2% distressed-sale share is historically low. He also said today’s weak sales pace, at a time of steady job growth, could mean sizable pent-up demand if rates come down. That’s a possibility, not a forecast you should plan around.

The West Fell the Hardest

All four regions were down from a year ago, but the West, which includes California, had the steepest drops:

• Sales: −9.7% from September to a 650,000 annual pace, and −14.5% from October 2025
• Median price: $624,300, unchanged from a year earlier
• Affordability: down 5.2% year over year

By comparison, the Northeast held steady month over month with a median price up 3.2%, and the South’s median slipped 0.4%. Higher-priced markets feel each rate increase more, because the same rate jump adds more to the monthly payment on a bigger loan.

What It Means for Santa Clarita and LA County

NAR’s monthly report doesn’t break out the Santa Clarita Valley. The closest recent local read is Redfin’s October data, which we covered in yesterday’s post: the Los Angeles metro’s median sale price was still up 1.9% year over year, but pending sales were down 17.4%. Taken together with NAR’s West numbers, the picture is consistent: prices are mostly holding, while the number of deals is shrinking. Conditions in Valencia, Saugus, Canyon Country, Newhall, Castaic and Stevenson Ranch still vary by neighborhood, price range and property type.

Buyers

More supply and longer market times generally give buyers more room to negotiate. Redfin’s weekly report this morning estimated about 600,000 more home sellers than buyers nationally, and said condo sellers outnumber buyers by more than 2 to 1. Practical steps: get fully pre-approved so your offer is taken seriously, ask how long a home has been listed and whether the price has been cut, and compare a lower price with seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown by running the monthly payment both ways. If you’re looking at new construction, ask builders about incentives on quick move-in homes.

Sellers

With a 5.1-month national supply and a 35-day median market time, pricing matters more than it has in years. Use recent pending sales and active competition, not last spring’s sales, to set your price, and present the home in move-in-ready condition. Decide ahead of time which concessions you’d be willing to offer. A home value estimate based on current local data is a good first step if you’re thinking about listing before the holidays or early in 2027.

Homeowners

Slower sales don’t automatically mean lower values. Nationally, the median existing-home price is still slightly above last year, and the West’s is flat. If you aren’t planning to move, the main takeaway is that your equity cushion is likely intact. If you’re weighing a move, it’s worth comparing your current payment with what a new loan would cost at today’s rates before you list.

Investors

Individual investors and second-home buyers made up 20% of October sales, up from 16% a year ago. A slower market can mean more motivated sellers, but it also carries real risks: rents may not cover a 7%-plus mortgage, homes can take longer to resell, values can fall, and carrying costs such as insurance and property taxes add up. Run conservative numbers, keep reserves and don’t count on rates or prices moving in your favor. Nothing here is a promise of returns.

Mortgage Rates and Demand This Week

Rates eased in early November before October’s hotter-than-expected inflation report on Nov. 10 pushed bond yields back up. The Mortgage Bankers Association said applications rose 6.2% in the week ending Nov. 6, with purchase applications up 8% (seasonally adjusted), as its 30-year fixed contract rate fell to 7.21%, the lowest since mid-September. Purchase applications were still 18% below a year earlier (unadjusted). Redfin’s weekly report showed the median monthly mortgage payment at a six-week low of $2,755 in the four weeks ending Nov. 8, and noted that rates have ticked up since the inflation report.

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed at 7.18% as of Nov. 5. The new reading comes out later today, and we’ll cover it once it’s published. On the Fed side, Governor Christopher Waller said this week he would support a December rate hike and that a half-point move should be considered if inflation data came in hot, according to CNBC. We covered the inflation report and what it means for rates in our Nov. 10 post. Your own rate depends on credit, down payment, loan type and timing.

Sources: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, Redfin weekly housing market update (Nov. 12, 2026), Freddie Mac PMMS and CNBC (Nov. 10, 2026).

California update: Props. 1 and 37 still counting

In unofficial Secretary of State returns as of the evening of Nov. 11, Proposition 1, the housing affordability bond, had 61.1% Yes, and Proposition 37, the state loan program for middle-income buyers of qualified new homes, had 62.4% Yes. Counties are still counting ballots. They must report final results by Dec. 4, and the Secretary of State is scheduled to certify on Dec. 11, 2026. See our Props. 1 and 37 explainer for what each measure does. Sources: California Secretary of State ballot measure results, SOS canvass timeline and The Ballot Book (SOS totals, updated Nov. 11).

What’s Next

• Thu., Nov. 12 (later today): Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rate survey.
• Fri., Nov. 13: October Producer Price Index (BLS).
• Wed., Nov. 18: NAR October Pending Home Sales Index, a read on contracts signed.
• Dec. 8–9: Fed meeting.

Sources: NAR release schedule and BLS PPI schedule.

Andy & Rebekah, Entity Realty, entityrealty.com

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Andy Martinez Jr., Mortgage Loan Originator | NMLS #2171006 · Entity Mortgage and Realty, Company NMLS #2371431 · CA DRE #01978202 · 26254 Prima Way, Santa Clarita, CA 91350 · Equal Housing Opportunity. General information only, not a commitment to lend, and not tax, legal or investment advice. Approval, rates and terms depend on credit, income, property and program guidelines and can change.